Home / Patterns / Stocks and prices Are prices lower when the world holds more stock? For 3 of the 6 crops with a long enough record (palm oil, rice, soybeans), real prices were clearly lower in years when world stocks-to-use was high. For the others the link is weak or runs the other way, so the textbook relationship is not universal in this data.
Stocks-to-use is world ending stocks divided by world consumption, from USDA, for each marketing year since 1960. Each point below is one year, plotted against the calendar-year average price deflated to real dollars. The table compares the median real price in the third of years with the lowest stocks against the third with the highest. Rank correlation runs from −1 (higher stocks, lower price, every time) to +1. The latest marketing year is a projection and is left out. With 60-odd years each, and prices that also respond to energy costs, currencies and policy, treat these as descriptions, not laws.
World stocks-to-use against real price by crop Crop Years Rank correlation Median real price, lowest-stocks third Highest-stocks third Coffee 66 (1960–2025) 0.54 4.7 (stocks 13–34%) 8.4 (stocks 199–551%) Corn 66 (1960–2025) -0.25 413 (stocks 13–20%) 249 (stocks 29–48%) Palm oil 62 (1964–2025) -0.41 2,061 (stocks 3–12%) 963 (stocks 17–24%) Rice 66 (1960–2025) -0.64 1,290 (stocks 6–19%) 568 (stocks 32–38%) Soybeans 62 (1964–2025) -0.53 1,064 (stocks 5–18%) 524 (stocks 24–33%) Wheat 66 (1960–2025) 0.09 401 (stocks 21–30%) 498 (stocks 36–47%)
1960: stocks-to-use 402%, real price 10 1961: stocks-to-use 356%, real price 9 1962: stocks-to-use 551%, real price 9 1963: stocks-to-use 439%, real price 8 1964: stocks-to-use 431%, real price 10 1965: stocks-to-use 487%, real price 10 1966: stocks-to-use 426%, real price 9 1967: stocks-to-use 439%, real price 8 1968: stocks-to-use 355%, real price 8 1969: stocks-to-use 346%, real price 7 1970: stocks-to-use 279%, real price 9 1971: stocks-to-use 264%, real price 8 1972: stocks-to-use 281%, real price 8 1973: stocks-to-use 188%, real price 10 1974: stocks-to-use 231%, real price 9 1975: stocks-to-use 203%, real price 8 1976: stocks-to-use 139%, real price 17 1977: stocks-to-use 156%, real price 27 1978: stocks-to-use 129%, real price 17 1979: stocks-to-use 128%, real price 17 1980: stocks-to-use 152%, real price 13 1981: stocks-to-use 213%, real price 10 1982: stocks-to-use 199%, real price 10 1983: stocks-to-use 199%, real price 9 1984: stocks-to-use 170%, real price 10 1985: stocks-to-use 197%, real price 9 1986: stocks-to-use 157%, real price 12 1987: stocks-to-use 229%, real price 7 1988: stocks-to-use 237%, real price 8 1989: stocks-to-use 205%, real price 6 1990: stocks-to-use 203%, real price 5 1991: stocks-to-use 208%, real price 4 1992: stocks-to-use 188%, real price 3 1993: stocks-to-use 150%, real price 3 1994: stocks-to-use 183%, real price 7 1995: stocks-to-use 138%, real price 7 1996: stocks-to-use 119%, real price 5 1997: stocks-to-use 99%, real price 8 1998: stocks-to-use 95%, real price 6 1999: stocks-to-use 81%, real price 4 2000: stocks-to-use 85%, real price 4 2001: stocks-to-use 91%, real price 2 2002: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 2 2003: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 2 2004: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 3 2005: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 4 2006: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 4 2007: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 4 2008: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 4 2009: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5 2010: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 6 2011: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 8 2012: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 6 2013: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 4 2014: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 6 2015: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 5 2016: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 5 2017: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 4 2018: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 4 2019: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 4 2020: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 4 2021: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 5 2022: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 6 2023: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 5 2024: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 6 2025: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 8 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Coffee: 66 years, rank correlation 0.54. 1960: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 472 1961: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 472 1962: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 504 1963: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 551 1964: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 552 1965: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 554 1966: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 563 1967: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 509 1968: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 432 1969: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 447 1970: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 472 1971: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 453 1972: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 418 1973: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 691 1974: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 835 1975: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 697 1976: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 619 1977: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 493 1978: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 484 1979: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 499 1980: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 477 1981: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 451 1982: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 355 1983: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 428 1984: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 410 1985: stocks-to-use 46%, real price 327 1986: stocks-to-use 48%, real price 250 1987: stocks-to-use 44%, real price 209 1988: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 284 1989: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 282 1990: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 262 1991: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 247 1992: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 233 1993: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 222 1994: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 228 1995: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 254 1996: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 332 1997: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 229 1998: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 196 1999: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 170 2000: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 161 2001: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 159 2002: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 173 2003: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 180 2004: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 186 2005: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 159 2006: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 190 2007: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 248 2008: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 325 2009: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 242 2010: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 267 2011: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 407 2012: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 408 2013: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 349 2014: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 256 2015: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 225 2016: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 208 2017: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 198 2018: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 205 2019: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 209 2020: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 201 2021: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 300 2022: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 342 2023: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 260 2024: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 191 2025: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 198 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Corn: 66 years, rank correlation -0.25. 1964: stocks-to-use 4%, real price 2421 1965: stocks-to-use 4%, real price 2712 1966: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 2277 1967: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 2101 1968: stocks-to-use 3%, real price 1522 1969: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 1548 1970: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 2100 1971: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 2022 1972: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 1631 1973: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 2666 1974: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 4256 1975: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 2530 1976: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 2241 1977: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 2743 1978: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 2887 1979: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 2826 1980: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 2222 1981: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1969 1982: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1446 1983: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 1580 1984: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 2200 1985: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 1459 1986: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 735 1987: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 946 1988: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 1159 1989: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 887 1990: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 696 1991: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 781 1992: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 880 1993: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 820 1994: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1118 1995: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 1293 1996: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 1062 1997: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 1067 1998: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1291 1999: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 821 2000: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 565 2001: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 509 2002: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 717 2003: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 813 2004: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 829 2005: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 724 2006: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 791 2007: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 1236 2008: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1520 2009: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1084 2010: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 1342 2011: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 1664 2012: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 1426 2013: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 1173 2014: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 1110 2015: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 878 2016: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 962 2017: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 961 2018: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 798 2019: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 738 2020: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 911 2021: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 1309 2022: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 1368 2023: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 913 2024: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 963 2025: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 981 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Palm oil: 62 years, rank correlation -0.41. 1960: stocks-to-use 7%, real price 1138 1961: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 1248 1962: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 1399 1963: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1287 1964: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1214 1965: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 1182 1966: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1403 1967: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 1780 1968: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 1649 1969: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 1440 1970: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 1020 1971: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 864 1972: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 971 1973: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 2045 1974: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 3290 1975: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 1990 1976: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 1293 1977: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 1305 1978: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 1662 1979: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 1353 1980: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 1564 1981: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 1583 1982: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 885 1983: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 809 1984: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 702 1985: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 574 1986: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 533 1987: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 593 1988: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 736 1989: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 757 1990: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 650 1991: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 676 1992: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 600 1993: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 511 1994: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 566 1995: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 661 1996: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 678 1997: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 593 1998: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 585 1999: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 468 2000: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 369 2001: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 306 2002: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 335 2003: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 337 2004: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 395 2005: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 460 2006: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 475 2007: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 494 2008: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 948 2009: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 811 2010: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 703 2011: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 757 2012: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 769 2013: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 681 2014: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 560 2015: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 511 2016: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 518 2017: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 511 2018: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 526 2019: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 513 2020: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 602 2021: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 531 2022: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 468 2023: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 570 2024: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 588 2025: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 397 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Rice: 66 years, rank correlation -0.64. 1964: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 1118 1965: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 1162 1966: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 1215 1967: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 1077 1968: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 999 1969: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 913 1970: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 944 1971: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 973 1972: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 1050 1973: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 2050 1974: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 1761 1975: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1282 1976: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 1274 1977: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1450 1978: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 1290 1979: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 1287 1980: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 1128 1981: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 995 1982: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 795 1983: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 887 1984: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 851 1985: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 654 1986: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 596 1987: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 596 1988: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 805 1989: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 696 1990: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 592 1991: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 552 1992: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 527 1993: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 554 1994: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 533 1995: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 534 1996: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 610 1997: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 577 1998: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 468 1999: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 380 2000: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 386 2001: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 347 2002: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 371 2003: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 450 2004: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 509 2005: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 441 2006: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 418 2007: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 580 2008: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 760 2009: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 619 2010: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 643 2011: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 750 2012: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 814 2013: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 743 2014: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 643 2015: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 519 2016: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 530 2017: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 504 2018: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 493 2019: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 453 2020: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 493 2021: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 675 2022: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 724 2023: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 616 2024: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 462 2025: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 404 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Soybeans: 62 years, rank correlation -0.53. 1960: stocks-to-use 47%, real price 615 1961: stocks-to-use 42%, real price 615 1962: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 667 1963: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 660 1964: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 682 1965: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 592 1966: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 608 1967: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 618 1968: stocks-to-use 42%, real price 566 1969: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 499 1970: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 443 1971: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 478 1972: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 524 1973: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 987 1974: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 1143 1975: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 869 1976: stocks-to-use 42%, real price 732 1977: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 534 1978: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 614 1979: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 693 1980: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 658 1981: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 604 1982: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 521 1983: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 496 1984: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 460 1985: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 396 1986: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 329 1987: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 312 1988: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 385 1989: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 428 1990: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 325 1991: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 296 1992: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 338 1993: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 305 1994: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 317 1995: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 364 1996: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 415 1997: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 312 1998: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 243 1999: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 211 2000: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 208 2001: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 225 2002: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 258 2003: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 249 2004: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 261 2005: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 245 2006: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 299 2007: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 386 2008: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 475 2009: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 328 2010: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 322 2011: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 441 2012: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 428 2013: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 420 2014: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 378 2015: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 271 2016: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 218 2017: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 223 2018: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 262 2019: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 247 2020: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 281 2021: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 365 2022: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 461 2023: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 350 2024: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 269 2025: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 237 Stocks-to-use, % Real price Wheat: 66 years, rank correlation 0.09.
USDA PSD world ending stocks and domestic consumption (marketing years), matched to the calendar-year average of the World Bank Pink Sheet primary price for the year the marketing year begins, deflated by the US consumer price index to 2024 dollars. Price units differ by crop ($/kg or $/t). Only crops with USDA balances and a Pink Sheet series are included; coffee shows the opposite sign to the textbook one. One possibility is that stocks build when prices are high, so cause may run the other way, but this data cannot say.
More patterns Concentration How much of each commodity comes from one country? Producer or exporter? Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad? Prices in real terms Which prices are records once inflation is removed? Growth and decline Whose output is rising or falling fastest? Linked prices and seasons Which prices move together, and which have a season? A century of real prices Are minerals getting scarcer, judging by their real prices since 1900? Supplier exposure Which big buyers lean on one supplier for critical minerals? Trade after export controls What happened to a country's exports after it controlled them? Export share history Who has gained and lost share of world exports since 2000? Prices around export controls What happened to mineral prices after export controls? Export basket prices What would a country's commodity exports have fetched at each month's prices? Substitution coverage How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier? Critical risk matrix Which critical minerals combine concentrated mining, export controls and import reliance? Country reserve life Which producing countries have the least of what they mine? Prices and cumulative output Do prices fall as the world digs up more of a mineral? US import reliance and recycling How much of each mineral does the United States import, and how much comes from scrap? Data confidence How firm are each commodity's production numbers? Export controls and bans Which governments restrict exports of minerals, and what is still in force? Chokepoints Which narrow passages do the world's commodities depend on? By-product minerals Which minerals are by-products of other metals? Peak production Which minerals and fuels are still setting records, and which peaked years ago? Reserves and mining Where are the deposits, and who digs them up? Supply concentration Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers? Land or yield? Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better? Supply shocks and prices When world output falls, do prices rise? Category price indices How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960? Drawdowns and volatility How far do prices fall, and do they recover? Which prices follow oil? How closely does each commodity track crude oil? How reliable is the data? How much of world output rests on estimates? Net exporters and importers Who is a net seller and who a net buyer? Country leaders Which countries lead across the most commodities? Export dependency Which countries rely on one commodity? Concentration over time Has production spread out or narrowed? Import dependency Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier? Supplier shifts Who gained and lost importers' business? Trade price against benchmark Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price? Prices in other currencies How much of a price move is the dollar? Do prices lead each other? Does one commodity price move before another? Volatility over time Are prices more volatile than they used to be? Seasonality Which prices have a calendar-month pattern? Price ratios What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low? El Niño and prices Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices? Who consumes it Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person? Self-sufficiency Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use? Trade flows Who sells each commodity to whom? Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json , and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page .