Patterns in the data

The commodity pages answer one question at a time. These reports look across all of them at once, and each finding is computed from the same tables the pages use, with the year and source shown, then refreshed with every monthly data update.

Concentration: How much of each commodity comes from one country?
33 of 110 commodities have one country producing more than half of world output. Top producer and top-five share for every commodity, ranked from most to least concentrated.
Producer or exporter?: Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad?
For 56 commodities, the biggest producer is not the biggest exporter. The commodities where the country that makes the most is not the country that exports the most.
Prices in real terms: Which prices are records once inflation is removed?
0 of 1 benchmark prices are at or near a record once inflation is removed. Every benchmark price against its all-time high, in cash terms and adjusted for inflation.
Growth and decline: Whose output is rising or falling fastest?
Fastest ten-year growth: hazelnuts in Chile, 20.3% a year. The fastest ten-year growers and fallers among the large producers of each commodity.
Linked prices and seasons: Which prices move together, and which have a season?
Platinum and silver are the most closely linked pair, correlation 0.81. Correlated commodity prices, price ratios and calendar-month patterns in benchmark prices.
A century of real prices: Are minerals getting scarcer, judging by their real prices since 1900?
Real prices in constant 1998 dollars for 24 minerals since 1900: what rose, what fell and when each peaked.
Supplier exposure: Which big buyers lean on one supplier for critical minerals?
The largest origin's share of EU, US, Japanese, Indian and South Korean imports for each critical mineral, against the EU 65% benchmark.
Trade after export controls: What happened to a country's exports after it controlled them?
The controlling country's exports and everyone else's in the years after dated export controls on minerals, on the customs lines that hold the controlled goods. Association only.
Export share history: Who has gained and lost share of world exports since 2000?
The largest exporter, top-five share and biggest gainers and losers of world export value on each commodity's main customs line, 2000 and 2024.
Prices around export controls: What happened to mineral prices after export controls?
Price changes 3, 6 and 12 months after dated bans, quotas and taxes on minerals, beside each price's own history and the market-wide move. Association only.
Export basket prices: What would a country's commodity exports have fetched at each month's prices?
A fixed-quantity index of what each large exporter's export basket would have fetched at each month's benchmark prices since 2000, with the coverage of its exports.
Substitution coverage: How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier?
For importers that buy half or more from one supplier, how every other exporter's sales to other buyers compare with that purchase. A ratio from the trade table, not spare capacity.
Critical risk matrix: Which critical minerals combine concentrated mining, export controls and import reliance?
Four measured conditions for each critical mineral, shown side by side with the values behind them, and which minerals meet several at once. No composite score.
Country reserve life: Which producing countries have the least of what they mine?
Each major producer's own reserves in years of its own output, against the world figure.
Prices and cumulative output: Do prices fall as the world digs up more of a mineral?
Real price against cumulative world output since 1900 for each mineral with a long record, with the change per doubling.
US import reliance and recycling: How much of each mineral does the United States import, and how much comes from scrap?
USGS net import reliance for 68 minerals in 2025, main import sources, recycled supply and where US scrap goes. United States only.
Data confidence: How firm are each commodity's production numbers?
A Firm, Fair or Rough level for 110 commodities from three repeatable tests: unassigned share, revisions to first estimates, and estimated share.
Export controls and bans: Which governments restrict exports of minerals, and what is still in force?
A dated register of export bans, quotas, licences and related measures on minerals, each with a source and its status as of 9 October 2026.
Chokepoints: Which narrow passages do the world's commodities depend on?
Straits, canals, rivers and port groups that carry a large share of oil, gas, grain and ore, each volume with its year, scope and source.
By-product minerals: Which minerals are by-products of other metals?
Which minerals are recovered as by-products or co-products of which host metals, each link with a quote from its source.
Peak production: Which minerals and fuels are still setting records, and which peaked years ago?
The year world output peaked, how far output is from that peak, and how long the record is.
Reserves and mining: Where are the deposits, and who digs them up?
South Africa holds 83% of known palladium reserves. Share of known reserves against share of production, and how long reserves last at current rates.
Supply concentration: Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?
Gallium is the most concentrated of 110 commodities, with an index of 9,804 out of 10,000. A concentration index for production and exports, next to price volatility and stocks.
Land or yield?: Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better?
8 of 31 growing crops grew mainly by yield, not land. Ten-year growth in world output split into more harvested area and higher yield for 45 crops.
Supply shocks and prices: When world output falls, do prices rise?
Prices rose after 51% of years when world output fell, and after 45% of quiet years. Every year since 1993 that world output of a priced crop changed, set against what its real price did.
Category price indices: How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960?
Adjusted for inflation, all commodities are 51% of their peak. World Bank category indices in cash and inflation-adjusted terms.
Drawdowns and volatility: How far do prices fall, and do they recover?
38 of 43 prices have not recovered from their worst fall. The worst fall in real terms for every price, how long recovery took, and volatility by decade.
Stocks and prices: Are prices lower when the world holds more stock?
Higher stocks went with lower prices for 3 of 6 crops. World stocks-to-use against the real price for six crops since 1960.
Which prices follow oil?: How closely does each commodity track crude oil?
3 prices correlate with crude oil at 0.40 or higher. Correlation of monthly price changes with crude oil in three periods.
How reliable is the data?: How much of world output rests on estimates?
14 of 67 commodities have over half their output estimated or imputed. The share of each commodity's output that is official, estimated or imputed.
Net exporters and importers: Who is a net seller and who a net buyer?
112 commodities, net exporters and importers by value. Exports minus imports by value for every commodity and the countries with the largest balances.
Country leaders: Which countries lead across the most commodities?
China is the largest producer of 39 of 110 commodities. Counts of first places in production, exports and imports across all the commodities on the site.
Export dependency: Which countries rely on one commodity?
Kyrgyzstan gets 98% of its tracked exports from gold, the highest of 119 countries. For each country, the single commodity that is the largest share of the export value this site tracks for it.
Concentration over time: Has production spread out or narrowed?
Sorghum spread out the most since the 1960s: 82% to 49% for the top five. The top-five producer share by decade since the 1960s, for commodities with a long country-level history.
Import dependency: Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier?
576 of 1320 large import markets buy half or more from a single supplier. For each importing country and commodity, the share of imports that comes from the single largest supplier.
Supplier shifts: Who gained and lost importers' business?
The largest supplier changed in 193 of 746 big import markets between 2022 and 2024. The biggest changes in who supplies a large importer, and the markets where the number one supplier changed.
Trade price against benchmark: Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price?
19 of 38 commodities export within 15% of their benchmark price. Average export price per tonne from customs data set against the benchmark price for the same year.
Prices in other currencies: How much of a price move is the dollar?
Over ten years the median price rose 62% in dollars and 149% in yen. Benchmark prices converted to euros, pounds and yen, over three windows.
Do prices lead each other?: Does one commodity price move before another?
79 of 861 price pairs show a lagged link; chance alone gives about 41. Cross-correlation at lags of up to six months, set against what chance alone would produce.
Volatility over time: Are prices more volatile than they used to be?
Median five-year volatility is 22% a year, across 43 prices. Rolling five-year volatility for every benchmark price, and where each one sits in its own history.
Seasonality: Which prices have a calendar-month pattern?
8 of 43 prices show a consistent calendar pattern; chance alone gives about 2. The twelve-month profile of every benchmark price, and how many would show a pattern by chance.
Price ratios: What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low?
4 of 10 price ratios are in their top or bottom tenth of history. Ten ratios between benchmark prices, with where the latest value sits in each one's history.
El Niño and prices: Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices?
Real price changes in El Niño and La Niña years against chance, for crops and for everything else.
Who consumes it: Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person?
Domestic supply and per-capita food supply by country from FAO food balance sheets, set against production.
Self-sufficiency: Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use?
Import dependency and self-sufficiency for the biggest consuming countries of each commodity.
Trade flows: Who sells each commodity to whom?
The biggest tracked flow is Canada to United States in crude oil. Bilateral exporter-importer pairs from CEPII BACI, not just each country's total, for every commodity's primary trade line.

For monthly price changes, see the monthly price changes reports. For one short finding a day, see the facts page. All figures are open data: patterns.json and facts.json.