Home / Patterns / Supply concentration Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers? Gallium is the most concentrated of the 110 commodities, with an index of 9,804 out of 10,000: China makes 99% of world output. Sesame seed is the least concentrated, at 494.
The index is a Herfindahl-Hirschman index: each supplier's percentage share is squared and the results are added up, so one supplier scores 10,000 and ten equal suppliers score 1,000. It is calculated separately for production and for exports by value, and the ranking uses the average of the two (production alone where there is no trade line). Concentration matters because a supply shock in one place is felt worldwide when that place is a large share of supply.
Price volatility is the annualised standard deviation of monthly price changes over the last ten years. Among the 41 commodities with a current benchmark price, the more concentrated half has a median annualised volatility of 23%, against 19% for the less concentrated half. That is a comparison of two groups of different commodities (metals against crops, for one), not evidence that concentration causes swings.
Supply concentration index, with price volatility and stocks Commodity Index Production Exports Largest producer Largest exporter Price volatility World stocks-to-use Gallium 9,804 9,804 — China 99% — — — Niobium 7,223 8,652 5,794 Brazil 93% Brazil 75% — — Magnesium 6,504 7,499 5,509 China 86% China 73% — — Tellurium 6,493 6,493 — China 80% — — — Beryllium 5,807 3,615 7,998 United States 53% Kazakhstan 89% — — Bismuth 5,319 7,453 3,185 China 86% China 52% — — Indium 5,096 5,096 — China 69% — — — Cobalt 4,988 5,720 4,256 DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) 74% DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) 65% — — Chromium 4,975 2,613 7,336 South Africa 45% South Africa 85% — — Jute 4,827 4,648 5,005 Bangladesh 56% Bangladesh 69% — — Silicon 4,810 7,589 2,030 China 87% China 41% — — Cloves 4,544 5,734 3,354 Indonesia 74% Indonesia 46% — — Quinoa 4,337 5,679 2,995 Peru 69% Peru 46% — — Graphite 4,100 6,114 2,086 China 78% China 42% — — Arsenic 4,037 4,037 — Peru 49% — — — Pistachios 4,016 2,671 5,361 United States 36% United States 72% — — Strontium 3,916 3,916 — Iran 56% — — — Hazelnuts 3,893 3,747 4,040 Turkey (Türkiye) 59% Turkey (Türkiye) 62% — — Lithium 3,878 2,024 5,733 Australia 32% Chile 73% — — Bauxite 3,822 2,141 5,503 Guinea 34% Guinea 72% — — Palm oil 3,799 4,077 3,521 Indonesia 59% Indonesia 48% 24% 18% Silk 3,627 4,198 3,056 India 56% China 48% — — Almonds 3,623 2,821 4,426 United States 51% United States 65% — — Tungsten 3,579 6,255 903 China 79% Bolivia 15% — — Rare earths 3,535 5,054 2,016 China 69% China 38% — — Vanadium 3,444 5,623 1,266 China 72% Austria 20% — — Platinum 3,441 5,243 1,639 South Africa 71% South Africa 36% 23% — Yams 3,302 5,198 1,406 Nigeria 71% Ghana 25% — — Tantalum 3,279 3,279 — DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) 52% — — — Fluorspar 3,264 4,074 2,455 China 60% Mexico 37% — — Vanilla 3,153 2,538 3,768 Madagascar 43% Madagascar 60% — — Soybeans 3,137 2,420 3,854 Brazil 36% Brazil 54% 16% 28% Ginger 3,027 2,744 3,310 India 48% China 56% — — Chickpeas 2,880 4,499 1,261 India 65% Australia 24% — — Palm kernel oil 2,770 4,194 1,345 Indonesia 59% Malaysia 29% 34% — Manganese 2,768 2,280 3,256 South Africa 38% South Africa 49% — — Iron ore 2,715 1,996 3,433 Australia 38% Australia 55% 32% — Nickel 2,679 4,559 800 Indonesia 67% Norway 15% 25% — Wool 2,513 913 4,114 China 21% Australia 62% — — Coal 2,436 2,960 1,911 China 52% Australia 34% 37% — Cinnamon 2,414 2,910 1,918 China 38% Vietnam 28% — — Sisal 2,383 2,484 2,281 Brazil 40% India 39% — — Palladium 2,373 3,413 1,333 Russia 44% Russia 22% — — Rhenium 2,370 2,370 — Chile 37% — — — Sorghum 2,335 656 4,014 United States 14% United States 58% — — Linseed 2,215 2,385 2,045 Russia 39% Russia 38% — — Coconut oil 2,189 2,308 2,069 Philippines 39% Indonesia 34% 27% — Antimony 2,158 2,582 1,734 China 36% Thailand 29% — — Pineapples 2,158 569 3,746 Costa Rica 11% Costa Rica 59% — — Aluminum 2,143 3,810 476 China 61% Canada 10% 16% — Lentils 2,053 1,838 2,269 Canada 31% Canada 38% — — Tea 2,051 2,953 1,150 China 50% Kenya 18% 17% — Plywood 2,046 3,072 1,020 China 53% China 27% 7% — Olive oil 1,985 1,568 2,402 Spain 33% Spain 42% — — Steel 1,979 2,805 1,153 China 52% China 28% — — Phosphate rock 1,904 2,300 1,507 China 44% Morocco 29% 32% — Zirconium 1,867 1,996 1,739 Australia 33% South Africa 36% — — Apples 1,858 2,845 872 China 52% China 16% — — Molybdenum 1,803 2,170 1,437 China 37% Chile 24% — — Potash 1,797 1,764 1,829 Canada 31% Canada 33% 29% — Sugar 1,703 1,036 2,371 Brazil 22% Brazil 47% 21% — Cotton 1,659 1,377 1,940 China 23% Brazil 30% 16% — Sunflower oil 1,654 1,805 1,502 Russia 31% Ukraine 28% 23% — Lamb 1,651 810 2,492 China 23% Australia 42% 17% — Pork 1,645 2,265 1,026 China 46% United States 18% — — Natural rubber 1,637 1,597 1,676 Thailand 32% Thailand 30% 19% — Feldspar 1,634 1,090 2,179 India 19% Turkey (Türkiye) 42% — — Avocados 1,631 1,061 2,200 Mexico 25% Mexico 43% — — Corn 1,621 1,692 1,550 United States 31% United States 28% 20% 21% Barite 1,579 2,075 1,083 India 34% India 18% — — Mangoes 1,521 2,174 869 India 45% Thailand 18% — — Cocoa 1,510 1,754 1,265 Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 36% Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 26% 32% — Rice 1,508 1,521 1,496 India 27% India 30% 18% 37% Coffee 1,507 1,457 1,557 Brazil 30% Brazil 35% 21% 15% Canola 1,495 1,238 1,752 Canada 22% Canada 32% 19% — Titanium 1,483 1,897 1,069 China 34% South Africa 23% — — Peanuts 1,470 1,732 1,208 China 34% Argentina 20% 18% — Tomatoes 1,390 1,352 1,428 China 33% Mexico 29% — — Pepper 1,335 1,378 1,292 Vietnam 28% India 24% — — Oats 1,333 662 2,004 Canada 15% Canada 41% — — Tin 1,324 1,436 1,211 China 24% Indonesia 26% 22% — Tobacco 1,252 1,742 763 China 37% Brazil 20% 6% — Lead 1,237 2,067 407 China 42% India 10% 15% — Copper 1,220 1,037 1,402 Chile 23% Chile 29% 16% — Cashews 1,215 1,182 1,247 Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 22% Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 23% — — Shrimp 1,198 1,552 844 China 31% Ecuador 20% — — Plantains 1,144 1,208 1,079 Uganda 27% Ecuador 23% — — Bananas 1,071 994 1,148 India 27% Ecuador 27% 20% — Oranges 1,070 899 1,240 Brazil 23% Spain 22% 30% — Eggs 1,052 1,445 658 China 35% Netherlands 17% — — Dates 1,046 1,157 935 Saudi Arabia 19% Saudi Arabia 18% — — Beef 1,036 715 1,358 United States 18% Brazil 27% 14% — Potatoes 982 936 1,029 China 24% France 21% — — Zinc 944 1,343 545 China 32% Spain 9.8% 20% — Natural gas 917 1,046 787 United States 26% United States 18% 68% — Cheese 912 1,066 758 United States 28% Germany 15% — — Silver 892 1,121 663 Mexico 24% China 16% 26% — Cassava 887 796 979 Nigeria 18% Cambodia 20% — — Chicken 877 606 1,149 United States 16% Brazil 26% 25% — Milk 871 613 1,130 India 17% New Zealand 28% — — Wheat 815 774 855 China 18% Russia 16% 20% 34% Grapes 767 832 702 China 22% Peru 14% — — Barley 758 515 1,002 Russia 12% Australia 19% — — Crude oil 750 853 647 United States 21% Saudi Arabia 14% 37% — Sawnwood 695 721 669 United States 17% Canada 17% 6% — Honey 674 810 538 China 24% New Zealand 11% — — Fishmeal 659 757 562 Peru 21% Peru 17% 11% — Logs 612 678 547 United States 16% New Zealand 14% 5% — Gold 554 455 654 China 12% Switzerland 18% 12% — Sesame seed 494 659 330 India 13% India 7.4% — —
Production: FAOSTAT, USGS, Energy Institute, FAO FishStat, latest year, top 25 producers. Exports: CEPII BACI, value in US dollars for the primary HS line, top 15 exporters; countries outside those lists are small, so indexes are very slightly understated. Price volatility: World Bank Pink Sheet primary series, last 120 months. Stocks-to-use: USDA PSD, latest marketing year (partly an estimate), available for eight crops. Uranium, orange juice and cardamom are left out because their production series is a proxy.
More patterns Concentration How much of each commodity comes from one country? Producer or exporter? Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad? Prices in real terms Which prices are records once inflation is removed? Growth and decline Whose output is rising or falling fastest? Linked prices and seasons Which prices move together, and which have a season? A century of real prices Are minerals getting scarcer, judging by their real prices since 1900? Supplier exposure Which big buyers lean on one supplier for critical minerals? Trade after export controls What happened to a country's exports after it controlled them? Export share history Who has gained and lost share of world exports since 2000? Prices around export controls What happened to mineral prices after export controls? Export basket prices What would a country's commodity exports have fetched at each month's prices? Substitution coverage How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier? Critical risk matrix Which critical minerals combine concentrated mining, export controls and import reliance? Country reserve life Which producing countries have the least of what they mine? Prices and cumulative output Do prices fall as the world digs up more of a mineral? US import reliance and recycling How much of each mineral does the United States import, and how much comes from scrap? Data confidence How firm are each commodity's production numbers? Export controls and bans Which governments restrict exports of minerals, and what is still in force? Chokepoints Which narrow passages do the world's commodities depend on? By-product minerals Which minerals are by-products of other metals? Peak production Which minerals and fuels are still setting records, and which peaked years ago? Reserves and mining Where are the deposits, and who digs them up? Land or yield? Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better? Supply shocks and prices When world output falls, do prices rise? Category price indices How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960? Drawdowns and volatility How far do prices fall, and do they recover? Stocks and prices Are prices lower when the world holds more stock? Which prices follow oil? How closely does each commodity track crude oil? How reliable is the data? How much of world output rests on estimates? Net exporters and importers Who is a net seller and who a net buyer? Country leaders Which countries lead across the most commodities? Export dependency Which countries rely on one commodity? Concentration over time Has production spread out or narrowed? Import dependency Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier? Supplier shifts Who gained and lost importers' business? Trade price against benchmark Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price? Prices in other currencies How much of a price move is the dollar? Do prices lead each other? Does one commodity price move before another? Volatility over time Are prices more volatile than they used to be? Seasonality Which prices have a calendar-month pattern? Price ratios What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low? El Niño and prices Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices? Who consumes it Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person? Self-sufficiency Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use? Trade flows Who sells each commodity to whom? Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json , and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page .