Which prices move together, and which have a season?

The most closely linked pair of benchmark prices is platinum and silver: their month-to-month percentage changes correlate at 0.81 over the 120 months to September 2026. Of the 903 possible pairs among 43 series, 24 correlate at 0.5 or higher and 120 at 0.3 or higher, so most commodity prices move largely independently of one another.

Prices that move together

The table shows the correlation of month-to-month percentage changes in each pair of benchmark prices over the 120 months from October 2016 to September 2026. A value of 1 means the two rise and fall in step, 0 means no relationship, and −1 means they move in opposite directions. Using changes rather than price levels avoids the trap that two prices which both trend upward always look related. Correlation is not causation: linked prices often share a cause such as energy costs, the dollar or a common buyer.

Green: prices that rise and fall together. Brown: prices that move in opposite directions. Thicker and darker lines are stronger correlations.

Most correlated pairs of benchmark prices
Price A	Price B	Correlation
Platinum	Silver	0.81
Copper	Zinc	0.73
Gold	Silver	0.72
Coconut oil	Palm kernel oil	0.72
Copper	Tin	0.70
Logs	Sawnwood	0.69
Canola	Sunflower oil	0.66
Palm kernel oil	Palm oil	0.64
Logs	Plywood	0.61
Aluminum	Copper	0.61
Lead	Zinc	0.60
Palm oil	Sunflower oil	0.59
Copper	Lead	0.56
Copper	Platinum	0.56
Aluminum	Zinc	0.55

The most negative pair is phosphate rock and plywood at -0.26, which is weak: no two of the 43 prices are strongly opposed.

What one commodity buys of another

Ratios between benchmark prices
Ratio	Latest (September 2026)	Average since 1960	Lowest month	Highest month
Gold to silver ounces of silver per ounce of gold	67	55	16 (June 1968)	111 (April 2020)
Gold to crude oil barrels of oil per ounce of gold	37	20	6.68 (June 2008)	72 (April 2020)
Platinum to gold ounces of gold per ounce of platinum	0.41	1.47	0.30 (May 2025)	3.80 (December 1969)
Copper to gold ounces of gold per tonne of copper	3.35	10	2.58 (February 2026)	54 (April 1966)

Prices with a season

For each benchmark price, each month is compared with the average of the twelve months around it, and the results are averaged by calendar month over 2000 to the last full year. The table lists prices where the gap between the highest and lowest calendar month is at least 6% and the highest month beat the lowest in at least three years out of four. The highest and lowest months are chosen after the fact from all twelve, so this describes the past and is not a forecast or a trading signal.

Benchmark prices with a consistent calendar-month pattern
Commodity	Usually highest	Usually lowest	Gap	Years highest beat lowest
Bananas	March	November	15%	26 of 26
Tea	July	March	14%	25 of 26
Palm kernel oil	February	October	11%	20 of 26
Iron ore	February	November	11%	23 of 26
Tin	April	November	8%	20 of 26
Chicken	June	November	8%	20 of 26
Corn	May	August	7%	22 of 26
Platinum	February	October	7%	20 of 26

World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), primary series for each commodity; only series updated in the latest month are used. Ratios use monthly average prices for both commodities.

More patterns

Concentration: How much of each commodity comes from one country?
Producer or exporter?: Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad?
Prices in real terms: Which prices are records once inflation is removed?
Growth and decline: Whose output is rising or falling fastest?
A century of real prices: Are minerals getting scarcer, judging by their real prices since 1900?
Supplier exposure: Which big buyers lean on one supplier for critical minerals?
Trade after export controls: What happened to a country's exports after it controlled them?
Export share history: Who has gained and lost share of world exports since 2000?
Prices around export controls: What happened to mineral prices after export controls?
Export basket prices: What would a country's commodity exports have fetched at each month's prices?
Substitution coverage: How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier?
Critical risk matrix: Which critical minerals combine concentrated mining, export controls and import reliance?
Country reserve life: Which producing countries have the least of what they mine?
Prices and cumulative output: Do prices fall as the world digs up more of a mineral?
US import reliance and recycling: How much of each mineral does the United States import, and how much comes from scrap?
Data confidence: How firm are each commodity's production numbers?
Export controls and bans: Which governments restrict exports of minerals, and what is still in force?
Chokepoints: Which narrow passages do the world's commodities depend on?
By-product minerals: Which minerals are by-products of other metals?
Peak production: Which minerals and fuels are still setting records, and which peaked years ago?
Reserves and mining: Where are the deposits, and who digs them up?
Supply concentration: Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?
Land or yield?: Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better?
Supply shocks and prices: When world output falls, do prices rise?
Category price indices: How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960?
Drawdowns and volatility: How far do prices fall, and do they recover?
Stocks and prices: Are prices lower when the world holds more stock?
Which prices follow oil?: How closely does each commodity track crude oil?
How reliable is the data?: How much of world output rests on estimates?
Net exporters and importers: Who is a net seller and who a net buyer?
Country leaders: Which countries lead across the most commodities?
Export dependency: Which countries rely on one commodity?
Concentration over time: Has production spread out or narrowed?
Import dependency: Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier?
Supplier shifts: Who gained and lost importers' business?
Trade price against benchmark: Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price?
Prices in other currencies: How much of a price move is the dollar?
Do prices lead each other?: Does one commodity price move before another?
Volatility over time: Are prices more volatile than they used to be?
Seasonality: Which prices have a calendar-month pattern?
Price ratios: What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low?
El Niño and prices: Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices?
Who consumes it: Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person?
Self-sufficiency: Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use?
Trade flows: Who sells each commodity to whom?

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.